Methodology

Positioning index (−100 to +100)

The v2 index is a descriptive, cross-sectional comparison across the saved cohort as of the displayed date. It is not a forecast and it is not a trading signal. Each component uses a robust median and interpolated IQR scale, clipped to ±3σ. Fewer than five valid cohort observations make a component unrankable.

index = Σ(z × weight × 100/3), published only with ≥2 rankable components
weights = reported ownership .30 · foreign flow .25 · broker context .20
          shareholder count .15 · foreign holder-class shift .10

• Reported ownership (30%) — signed transaction value in the inclusive 90-calendar-day window.
• Foreign flow (25%) — signed net inflow in the inclusive 90-day window, normalized only when an observed positive market cap exists.
• Broker context (20%) — eligible institutional or foreign broker net value in the inclusive 14-day window; no rows means missing.
• Shareholder count (15%) — latest valid month-over-month change on or before the as-of date.
• Foreign holder-class shift (10%) — foreign institutional classes minus foreign individual classes across the same two months.

A null component is missing evidence, not a measured zero. Coverage weight is the sum of rankable weights and is not a probability.

Bounded candidate patterns

• Holder cluster — at least three distinct normalized holders transacting in one direction inside a 30-day event window.
• Buy during decline — reported buys while the pre-anchor close was lower than the prior context close.
• Stealth flow — reported buys with abnormal foreign flow in the bounded pre-anchor window.

Candidate membership and evidence stop at the event anchor. Post-anchor prices can change only the retrospective outcome object.

Retrospective outcomes

Outcomes use the first common issuer and IHSG observed session on or after the anchor (within seven calendar days), then the first common session on or after the 7-, 30-, or 60-day target (also within seven days). A missing full horizon is Pending or Unavailable; it is never formatted as 0%. Excess return is the issuer percentage minus the benchmark percentage over the same sessions.

Data lineage and coverage

The public app reads a hash-verified local Sectors snapshot and generated v2 artifacts. The snapshot includes parsed filings, foreign flow, daily prices, broker rows, monthly holders, tickers, and a benchmark-observed IHSG series. Retrieval times and historical publication availability are not verified for legacy rows. Ambiguous flat-OHLC or zero-volume observations are marked legacy-unknown.